Sterling Terrell

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Dear Department Chairman

Dear Department Chairman

Dear economics department chairman,

In all the formal economic study I have sat through, I have developed a growing concern for the direction of the economics profession in general, and economic education in particular. Let me explain — and challenge you.

What is knowledge? How is knowledge acquired? What do we know? How do we know what we know? These questions seem most fitting for a philosophy class in epistemology — however, they are also essential in the world of economics.

The discovery of knowledge can be broken down into two main approaches (excluding the category of divine revelation): inductive reasoning and deductive reasoning. Simply put, inductive reasoning is the discovery of knowledge through observation (as in the scientific method). Conversely, deductive reasoning is the discovery of knowledge done through logic. Or, said differently, deductive knowledge is gained in an a priori (knowledge before experience) fashion that follows naturally from stated axioms.

Importantly, knowledge gained through deductive means is no less valid than knowledge gained through inductive means.

The issue is that in the realm of mainstream economics today this is not recognized to be true. Deductive reasoning is sneered at, especially when it is not presented in the formality of Greek letters. Most economists label those that use deduction as “unscientific” and “imprecise.” The emphasis on induction is so strong in economics PhD programs today that a grad student with a background in math or statistics can finish his or her PhD with superb grades and know literally nothing about cause-and-effect economics.

Let me be clear, having induction as the mainstream of economic thought is not the issue that I wish to bring up: the issue is having inductive analysis as the mainstream of economic discovery while deductive discovery is not only looked down upon — it is not even taught. Innovation in economic thought requires a dynamic debate by all. It must be a process that includes healthy academic discussion by those who favor inductive and those who favor deductive discovery.

At one time in economics’ relatively short history, it was not so one-sided. The period from 1870 to 1920 saw the deductive-favoring Austrian School of economics and the inductive-favoring German School of economics in a pointed exchange of academic ideas. As the marginalist revolution in economics had just exploded, healthy economic debate was alive and well.

Carl Menger introduced marginalism in his 1871 book, Principles of Economics, which also refuted work done by both Adam Smith and David Ricardo. Next, Karl Marx, working on the labor theory of value, was challenged heavily by Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk. Finally, the likes of Ludwig von Mises, Joseph Schumpeter, Friedrich von Hayek, John Maynard Keynes, and Alfred Marshall spent a generation at variance, debating ideas about the progress of economic theory and the basis upon which it began. The point is that both deductive- and inductive-favoring economists contributed and offered analysis in healthy academic debate.

Sadly, World War II broke up the primarily European dialogue. When the dust of war had settled, the result was that the deductive-favoring Austrian School was less prominent and the inductive-favoring German School was now the mainstream.[1]

As induction took root, the use of deduction was more and more looked down upon, until “acceptable” economic inquiry became the one-sided view that it is today: Use the scientific method on a dataset. Quantify. Infer.

Switching gears a bit, there are essentially three ways (in a free market) in which a business can get ahead of its competitors:

  1. make a better product at a cheaper price;
  2. for the same price, make a better product; or
  3. differentiate yourself from your competitors.

In some ways, graduate education can be looked at in the same light.

There are X number of schools offering schooling in a particular program and Y number of students in any given year, choosing among available schools. Parameters that can play a part in the student’s decision include the following: What school leaves me the least in debt? What schools have a better reputation? What schools have strong programs in what I want to study? And most importantly, What schools do I have the grades to get into?

From the perspective of the school, however, the goal is to attract as many applications as possible. The more students that apply, the more a given department can be more selective in admitting students, as they are now drawing from a larger pool.

By offering one or two undergraduate or graduate courses in this vein, your school can pride itself on being one of the few programs in the nation that offer students an additional perspective to round out their education. It is even better if you oversee an agricultural- and applied-economics program. Then you may boast that you are the only school in the nation that offers any formal study of such economics based in deduction.[2]

Marketed in the right light, this could be a simple and effective way to differentiate your school in the minds of prospective students — particularly graduate students. And most importantly, from the point of view of academic honesty and freedom, adding an economics class or two based in deductive or “Austrian” analysis is the right thing to do. The discovery of knowledge is the literal foundation of the academic process, and dogmatically relegating one form of inquiry to obscurity is not only a bit academically dishonest — it’s wrong.

I hope you will make the right decision.

Sincerely,

Sterling T. Terrell

First published by the Mises Insitute.

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Filed Under: PotpourriTagged With: #AustrianEconomics, #Economics

Fiscal Policy: Does it Work?

Fiscal Policy: Does it Work?

Fiscal policy, the attempt to use government outlays and revenue to better the economy, simply does not work either a priori or in practice.

But just ask any undergraduate student in Macroeconomics 101 about fiscal policy. They know the “correct” answer: If the economy is “too slow,” the government should lower interest rates and increase government spending. If the economy is “overheated,” the government should raise interest rates and decrease government spending.

The horrors of monetary policy aside, fiscal policy cannot stimulate the economy. As we know, the government has no money of its own. It has only the power to tax and spend the money of others. There can only be a transfer that takes place, not a creation of wealth: jobs in X are gained, but jobs in Y are lost.

However, this transfer is actually a loss. Taxing away a person’s ability to fulfill his own wants and then providing him with things he may not care about makes him worse off. This process condescendingly supposes that individuals cannot decide for themselves what they need.

Furthermore, taxing is not done in a uniform manner. Progressive income taxes, double corporate taxes, and estate taxes all disproportionally take from the people that make, create, invest, and speculate to the betterment of all. Henry Hazlitt famously explained this in his well-known work Economics in One Lesson (see chapter five).

The common objection to such a theoretical analysis is: “Well. No. You have to look at the fiscal multiplier. One dollar in government spending, once it filters through the economy, will make GDP increase by more than one dollar.”

Let us agree to play the empirical game, momentarily.   New work done by Ethan Ilzetzki, Enrique Mendoza, and Carlos Vegh, covering data from 45 countries from 1960 to 2007, casts doubt on the validity of the multiplier in many cases.

Our findings lead to the usual “it depends” answer to the size of the fiscal multiplier question. As those familiar with macroeconomic theory likely anticipated, the size of the fiscal multipliers critically depends on key characteristics of the economy (closed versus open, predetermined versus flexible exchange rate regimes, high versus low debt) or on the type of aggregate being considered (government consumption versus government investment). Policymakers would therefore be well -served in taking into account a given country’s characteristics in evaluating the benefits of any fiscal stimulus package.

Read the details for yourself, but the differences they found seem to be the largest when comparing fixed- and flexible-exchange-rate economies,

 

and closed and open economies:

This all suggests that in a country such as the United States the fiscal multiplier is virtually zero.

Robert Barrow agrees.

So, in addition to fiscal policy taking away the freedom to choose, robbing X to hand it to Y, and penalizing the very people that improve our lives, it also fails empirically. Even if it did not, as is seemingly the case in certain closed economies graphed above, there would still not be a valid reason to oppress people further by taxing away their money for “stimulation.” By that rationale, a fiscal policy taking up 95% of GDP would make people better off than a fiscal policy taking up 5% of GDP. Clearly, this is not the case.

Earlier this year, Frank Shostak predicted that the recent fiscal stimulus would not help the US economy. Looking at unemployment, he was right.

Fiscal policy does not work, a priori or empirically, but the Austrians already knew that.

First published by LvMI.

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Filed Under: PotpourriTagged With: #Economics, #FiscalPolicy

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