Sterling Terrell

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You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Club

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending: 1/23/2015

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed around 180 points lower this week as prices finished at 57.44.  The July-15 contract finished at 59.17.  Open interest for March-15 is at 133,941 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 19,236. U.S. certified stocks equaled 46,561 while net export sales were at 470,300 RB. Managed money is net short. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 57.00 with possible resistance around 58.40.  The long-term trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  57.44
July-15 is at:  59.17
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  65.80

Cash Sales
For 1/23/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 53.39.
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -405 points.
Cash prices are averaging 7.56 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 46,561
US Net Upland Export Sales = 470,300
(China was the big buyer at 174,500.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.66  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  119.17
Supply:  220.83
Mill Use:  112.24
Ending Stocks:  108.64
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  96.79%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  36.50
Ending Stocks:  63.16
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  173.04%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.50
Imports – Exports:  -3.60
Supply:  38.42
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.42

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.08%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.08
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.54
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.7
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  123.68%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  56,810  (Contracts)
  • Short: 75,595
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  45,544
  • Short:  5,922
Managed Money

  • Long:  47,859
  • Short:  52,362
Other Reportables

  • Long: 18,722
  • Short:  28,031

General View

Bearish

The archive can be found by clicking, here.

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

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