Notes
Managed money is net long.
Possible support around 73.00.
Possible resistance around 75.00.
The trend is up.
PriceCotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 83.80
Recently, on 769 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 67.68.Cash prices are averaging approximately 14.18 cents over loan value.
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 313,026
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 261,300
Vietnam was the big buyer at 74,300.
Current World Balance Sheet (2017/2018)
Beginning Stocks: 89.34 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 114.73
Mill Use: 116.51
Ending Stocks: 87.71
Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 48.40 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 24.00
Mill Use: 38.00
Ending Stocks: 39.35
Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 11.99 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 28.00
Mill Use: 24.20
Ending Stocks: 13.34
Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.2 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 19.20
Mill Use: 3.40
Ending Stocks: 5.50
Swap Dealers
Cotton Club Letter Price Model: Current Price Is Available By Subscription Only
A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: X cents.”*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a monthly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.====================
The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here.
If this was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrellAToutlookDOTcom with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.
