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You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Club

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending: 1/2/2015

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed near 250 points lower this week as prices finished at 59.58.  The July-15 contract finished at 61.23.  Open interest for March-15 is at 120,821 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 10,832. U.S. certified stocks equaled 51,142 while net export sales were at 89,400 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 58.50 with possible resistance around 61.00.  The long-term trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  59.58
July-15 is at:  61.23
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  68.55

Cash Sales
For 1/2/2014, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 59.75 (B2B only).
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -17 points.
Cash prices are averaging 7.98 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 51,142
US Net Upland Export Sales = 89,400
(Vietnam was the big buyer at 36,200.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.64  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.98
Supply:  220.62
Mill Use:  112.60
Ending Stocks:  108.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  95.99%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  37.00
Ending Stocks:  62.66
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  169.35%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  31.00
Imports – Exports:  -3.90
Supply:  38.62
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.62

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.92%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  15.92
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.38
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  121.05%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  35,116  (Contracts)
  • Short: 76,763
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  45,720
  • Short:  5,634
Managed Money

  • Long:  48,566
  • Short:  36,981
Other Reportables

  • Long: 15,455
  • Short:  24,212

General View

Bearish

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

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