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You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/10/2017

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/10/2017

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/10/2017

Notes
Nearby contract closed approximately 59 points lower
this week.

Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 75
.00, possible resistance around 76.20.
The trend is up.

Price
Mar-17 is at:   75.82        Volume = 34,508
May-17 is at:  77.09         Volume = 29,639
July-17 is at:   77.94         Volume = 6,344
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 84.90


Cash Sales

Recently, on 10,018 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 70.67.
On the nearby contract, that puts the average basis at approximately:  –515 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 18.33 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 262
,695
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 208,100
     Turkey was the big buyer at 45,500. 

Current World Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 96.83 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 105.42
Mill Use: 112.52
Ending Stocks: 89.90
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 79.9% 


Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 58.20 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 22.00
Mill Use: 36.25
Ending Stocks: 48.85
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 134.8%

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 10.94 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 27.00
Mill Use: 23.75
Ending Stocks: 11.59
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 48.8%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.8 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.96
Mill Use: 3.30
Ending Stocks: 4.80
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 145.5%

 
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
    Long:  19,443  (Contracts)
    Short: 209,156
Swap Dealers
    Long:  66,775
    Short:  5,139
Managed Money
    Long:  111,936
    Short:  10,773
Other Reportables
    Long:  30,116
    Short:  14,792

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Current Price Is Available By Subscription Only
A 
regression model
, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 


“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately:  X cents.”

*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 


General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.


====================


The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here

If this was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrellAToutlookDOTcom with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.

Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

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