A bet is nothing more than a firm decision about an uncertain future.
In that sense, we all make bets every day, don’t we?
- How to dress for the weather.
- What degree to major in.
- What job to take.
- Who to date.
- Who to marry.
- Where to live.
This idea is what this book is about.
Your going to do X becasue you think Y is going to happen?
Really?
How much money would you bet on that?
I was lucky, early in my career, to meet some exceptional poker players and learn from them how they handled not only luck and uncertainty but also the relationship between learning and decision-making. Over time, those world-class poker players taught me to understand what a bet really is: a decision about an uncertain future. The implications of treating decisions as bets made it possible for me to find learning opportunities in uncertain environments. Treating decisions as bets, I discovered, helped me avoid common decision traps, learn from results in a more rational way, and keep emotions out of the process as much as possible.
-Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets (Amazon)