Chart: barchart.com
Notes
ICE dollar prices were down heavy this week. Export sales were up big as U.S. certified stocks slumped to 397, 614 bales. Open interest for December stands at 118,782 while March open interest rose to 23,449. Conditions Report stated 55% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 53% last week, and 44% last year. 13% of crop is poor to very poor, the same as last week, and 24% last year. World Ag. supply and demand estimates show expected U.S. production jumped 1,5 million bales to 16.5 million. Domestic mill use was raised 100,000 bales and exports were raised 500,000 bales. At the same time, U.S. ending stocks were raised to 5.2 million bales. The report noted that if met (the 5.2 million bales of ending stock) would “be the largest since 2008/09.” Managed money is net long. Possible resistance around 67.50
Price
December is at: 68.12
March is at: 69.04
March is at: 69.04
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 397, 614
US Net Export Sales of 203,200 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Turkey was the largest buyer at 73,000).
(Turkey was the largest buyer at 73,000).
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 100.56 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 116.42
Supply: 216.98
Mill Use: 111.34
Ending Stocks: 105.68
Stocks/Use Ratio: 94.92%
Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 61.31 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 29.5
Imports: 8.00
Imports: 8.00
Supply: 98.81
Mill Use: 36.5
Ending Stocks: 62.26
Stocks/Use Ratio: 164.22%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.5
Imports: .01
Imports: .01
Supply: 19.21
Mill Use: 3.8
Ending Stocks: 5.2
Stocks/Use Ratio: 136.84%
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
- Long: 16,165 (Contracts)
- Short: 68,459
Swap Dealers
- Long: 56,154
- Short: 7,147
Managed Money
- Long: 40,250
- Short: 24,824
Other
- Long: 14,252
- Short: 24,411
View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)
Bearish
