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Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 9/12/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 9/12/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. rose 369 points this week as prices bounced back from near recent lows.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 53,056 while net export sales were at -34,200 RB.  Open interest for December stands at 112,100 with March open interest at 55,429. Conditions Report stated 49% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 50% last week, and 45% last year.  17% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 16% last week, and 21% this week last year.  Managed money is net long. Technical traders see support around 66.00 with resistance around 69.50.

Price

December is at:  68.00
March is at:  67.43

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 53,056.   Down from 66,982 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = -34,200
(Vietnam was the big buyer at 19,400)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  100.3  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.01
Supply:  218.31
Mill Use:  112.12
Ending Stocks:  106.29
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  94.8%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.96 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  99.46
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.91
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  172.35%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.54
Exports:  10.00
Supply:  18.99
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  136.84%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  40,742  (Contracts)
  • Short:  68,476
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  50,536
  • Short:  7,796
Managed Money

  • Long:  40,754
  • Short: 33,454
Other Reportables

  • Long:  15,941
  • Short:  35,486

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bullish
Sterling Terrell