Sterling Terrell

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Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 10/10/2014

Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 10/10/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. rose 163 points this week as prices pushed just over of 64.00.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 16,179 while net export sales were at 68,500 RB.  Open interest for December stands at 99,692 with March open interest at 63,289. Conditions Report stated 47% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 49% last week, and N/A% last year.  20% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 18% last week, and N/A% this week last year.  Managed money is net long. Technical traders see support around 63.00 with resistance around 66.00.  The trend is down.

Price

December is at:  64.10
March is at:  61.84

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 18,427.  Down from 18,545 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 68,500
(China was the big buyer at 39,000.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  100.3  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.01
Supply:  218.31
Mill Use:  112.12
Ending Stocks:  106.29
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  94.8%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.96 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  99.46
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.91
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  172.35%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.54
Exports:  10.00
Supply:  18.99
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  136.84%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  42,751  (Contracts)
  • Short:  61,913
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  53,171
  • Short:  7,867
Managed Money

  • Long:  38,742
  • Short:  35,786
Other Reportables

  • Long: 16,687
  • Short:  42,865

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish to neutral
Sterling Terrell