Sterling Terrell

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You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Club

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending: 12/12/2014 

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed about 40 points higher this week as prices finished at 60.54.  The July-15 contract finished at 61.78.  Open interest for March-15 increased to 122,454 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 10,170. U.S. certified stocks rose to 46,136 while net export sales were at 199,200 RB. Cotton Ginnings Report stated 10,248,250 bales has been ginned this year, compared to 8,259,650 this week last year, and 12,262,500 this week in 2012.  Managed money is net short. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 60.00 with possible resistance around 61.50.  The trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  60.54
July-15 is at:  61.78
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  68.60

Cash Sales
For 12/12/2014, the trading platform TheSeam.com reports a current cash price average of: 57.88.
On March, that puts our average basis right at:  -266 points.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 46,136          40,088 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 199,200     167,000 last week.
(Indonesia was the big buyer at 77,200.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.64  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.98
Supply:  220.62
Mill Use:  112.60
Ending Stocks:  108.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  95.99%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  37.00
Ending Stocks:  62.66
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  169.35%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  31.00
Imports – Exports:  -3.90
Supply:  38.62
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.62

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.92%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  15.92
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.38
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  121.05%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  32,945  (Contracts)
  • Short: 64,191
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  48,698
  • Short:  2,941
Managed Money

  • Long:  43,524
  • Short:  44,897
Other Reportables

  • Long: 16,537
  • Short:  25,490

General View

Bearish

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

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