For Week Ending: 2/13/2015
Chart Source: barchart.com
Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed around 120 points higher this week as prices finished at 62.70. The July-15 contract finished at 63.52. Open interest for March-15 is at 38,390 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 29,589. U.S. certified stocks equaled 10,685 while net export sales were at 52,200 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 61.60 with possible resistance around 63.30. The long-term trend is up.
Price
March-15 is at: 62.70
July-15 is at: 63.52
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 69.05
Cash Sales
For 2/13/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 53.56.
On March, that puts the average basis right at: -910 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.11 cents over loan value.
July-15 is at: 63.52
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 69.05
Cash Sales
For 2/13/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 53.56.
On March, that puts the average basis right at: -910 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.11 cents over loan value.
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 10,685
US Net Upland Export Sales = 52,200
(China was the big buyer at 22,200.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
(China was the big buyer at 22,200.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 101.66 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 119.37
Supply: 221.03
Mill Use: 111.25
Ending Stocks: 109.84
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 98.73%
Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 30.00
Imports – Exports: 7.25
Imports – Exports: 7.25
Supply: 99.96
Mill Use: 35.50
Ending Stocks: 64.46
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 181.58%
Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 30.50
Imports – Exports: -3.10
Imports – Exports: -3.10
Supply: 38.92
Mill Use: 24.00
Ending Stocks: 14.92
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 62.16%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.08
Imports – Exports: -10.69
Imports – Exports: -10.69
Supply: 7.84
Mill Use: 3.65
Ending Stocks: 4.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 115.07%
Commitments of Traders
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
- Long: 37,064 (Contracts)
- Short: 106,195
Swap Dealers
- Long: 47,463
- Short: 5,027
Managed Money
- Long: 54,630
- Short: 31,415
Other Reportables
- Long: 17,597
- Short: 17,063
General View
Bullish — But don’t read a ton into that.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.
This letter archive can be found by clicking, here.
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*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.