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You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Club

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending:  2/6/2015

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed around 260 points higher this week as prices finished at 61.59.  The July-15 contract finished at 62.12.  Open interest for March-15 is at 94,538 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 24,105. U.S. certified stocks equaled 40,945 while net export sales were at 422,800 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 60.50 with possible resistance around 62.20.  The long-term trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  61.59
July-15 is at:  62.12
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  68.60

Cash Sales
For 2/6/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 56.57.
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -502 points.
Cash prices are averaging 9.44 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 40,945
US Net Upland Export Sales = 422,800
(Vietnam was the big buyer at 162,600.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.66  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  119.17
Supply:  220.83
Mill Use:  112.24
Ending Stocks:  108.64
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  96.79%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  36.50
Ending Stocks:  63.16
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  173.04%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.50
Imports – Exports:  -3.60
Supply:  38.42
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.42

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.08%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.08
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.54
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.7
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  123.68%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  38,921  (Contracts)
  • Short: 82,669
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  47,390
  • Short:  6,546
Managed Money

  • Long:  53,431
  • Short:  44,526
Other Reportables

  • Long: 20,449
  • Short:  25,811

General View

Bearish to neutral

The letter archive can be found by clicking, here.

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

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