Sterling Terrell

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You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Club

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending:  2/20/2015

 

Price Picture

 
Chart Source:  barchart.com

Trend Picture


Chart Source:  barchart.com
 

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed around 200 points higher this week as prices finished at 64.67.  The July-15 contract finished at 65.04.  Open interest for March-15 is at 5,862 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 30,185. U.S. certified cotton stocks equaled 10,685 while U.S. net export sales were at 69,700 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 63.00 with possible resistance around 65.00.  The long-term trend is up.
 

Price

March-15 is at:  64.67   
July-15 is at:  65.04       
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  71.55  

Cash Sales

For 2/20/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 55.62.
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -905 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.35 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 10,685                 
US Net Upland Export Sales = 69,700         
(Indonesia was the big buyer at 16,600.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  101.66  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  119.37
Supply:  221.03
Mill Use:  111.25
Ending Stocks:  109.84
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  98.73%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  7.25
Supply:  99.96
Mill Use:  35.50
Ending Stocks:  64.46
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  181.58%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.50
Imports – Exports:  -3.10
Supply:  38.92
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.92

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  62.16%

 

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.08
Imports – Exports:  -10.69
Supply:  7.84
Mill Use:  3.65
Ending Stocks:  4.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  115.07%

Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  22,510  (Contracts)
  • Short: 107,319
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  49,728
  • Short:  4,410
Managed Money

  • Long:  58,902
  • Short:  26,607
Other Reportables

  • Long: 17,096
  • Short: 14,575


General View

Bullish.  
(Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.)
 
This letter archive can be found by clicking, here.
 
If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

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