Price Picture
Chart Source: barchart.com
Notes
Nearby contract closed around 200 points lower this week.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 61.50, possible resistance around 64.00.
The trend is down.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 61.50, possible resistance around 64.00.
The trend is down.
Price
Dec-15 is at: 61.79 Volume = 18,584
March-16 is at: 61.88 Volume = 2,965
May-16 is at: 62.39 Volume =450
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 71.55
Cash Sales
Most recently, on 757 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 63.92.
On Dec, that puts the average basis at approximately: +213 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 11.51 cents over loan value.
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 102,490
US Net Upland Export Sales (2015/2016) = 123,900
(Turkey was the big buyer at 46,200.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Beginning Stocks: 110.96 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 111.46
Supply: 222.42
Mill Use: 114.44
Ending Stocks: 108.14
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 94.5%
Current China Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Beginning Stocks: 66.88 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 27.00
Imports – Exports: 5.70
Imports – Exports: 5.70
Supply: 99.58
Mill Use: 34.50
Ending Stocks: 65.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 188.64%
Current India Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Beginning Stocks: 13.42 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 29.50
Imports – Exports: -3.75
Imports – Exports: -3.75
Supply: 39.17
Mill Use: 26.25
Ending Stocks: 12.92
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 49.22%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Beginning Stocks: 4.2 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 14.50
Imports – Exports: -10.79
Imports – Exports: -10.79
Supply: 7.91
Mill Use: 3.75
Ending Stocks: 4.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 112.00%
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
- Long: 8,639 (Contracts)
- Short: 120,086
Swap Dealers
- Long: 62,962
- Short: 3,281
Managed Money
- Long: 63,307
- Short: 23,494
Other Reportables
- Long: 18,290
- Short: 10,201
June Cotton Price Model: 55.6 cents
A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: 55.6 cents.”
(*Note: This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
(*Note: This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
General View
Bearish.
(Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.)
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*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.