Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books

  • Home
  • About
    • Work With Me
    • My CV
    • Tools
    • Series
  • Newsletter
  • Advertising
You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/5/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/5/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 2/5/2016

Price Picture

Chart Source: barchart.com


Trend Picture

Chart Source: barchart.com
Notes
Nearby contract closed 116 points lower this week.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 59.00, possible resistance around 62.00.
The trend is down.
Price
March-16 is at:  59.97     Volume = 29,342
May-16 is at:  60.60        Volume = 21,068
July-16 is at:  61.30          Volume = 5,273
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 68.70
Cash Sales

Most recently, on 341 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 52.44.
On March, that puts the average basis at approximately: –753 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 7.08 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 26,916    
US Net Upland Export Sales (2015/2016) = 251,600
(Turkey was the big buyer at 91,700.)


Current World Balance Sheet (2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks: 112.07 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 101.56
Supply: 213.63
Mill Use: 110.94
Ending Stocks: 102.86
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 92.7%


Current China Balance Sheet (
2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks: 67.92 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 23.80
Imports – Exports: 5.3
Supply: 97.02
Mill Use: 32.50
Ending Stocks: 64.52
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 198.5%


Current India Balance Sheet (
2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks: 13.49 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 28.00
Imports – Exports: –4.8
Supply: 36.69
Mill Use: 25.00
Ending Stocks: 11.69
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 46.8%
 
Current USA Balance Sheet (2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks: 3.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 12.94
Imports – Exports: –9.99
Supply: 6.5
Mill Use: 3.60
Ending Stocks: 3.10
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 86.1%
 
Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  28,257  (Contracts)
  • Short: 101,398
Swap Dealers

  • Long: 51,192
  • Short:  7,302
Managed Money

  • Long:  50,833
  • Short: 27,827
Other Reportables
  • Long: 28,499
  • Short: 20,107
 

Dec. Cotton Price Model: 58.3 cents

A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
 
“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: X cents.”

*Note* – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.
 

General View

Bearish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.

Click here to Read: “10 Points on the ICE Cotton #2 Chart (CT) – Week Ending 2/5/2016”
==========


The Cotton Club Letter archive can be found by clicking, here.
 
If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell[at]outlook[dot]com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line. 
Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Privacy Policy

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter

Free Weekly Newsletter:

Search

Recent Posts

  • Starlings In Flight
  • This Déjà Vu, I love you
  • Didn’t Need Exercise
  • How To Be Great?
  • Fearfully And Wonderfully
  • Professionalize A Passion
  • Code Examples For Our API
  • Is What They Say But What Is
  • In Praise Of Short Chapters
  • Pretend It’s A City, With Fran Lebowitz
  • Must Have Tenacity
  • Don’t Know Jerry Weintraub
  • Instabooks 349
  • Throw The Emergency Break
  • The Week In Review – 255
  • How Much Does A Scriptwriter Get Paid?
  • Random Thoughts – 279
  • Instabooks 348
  • A PO Or A BA
  • How People Get Hired
  • Bridger Plateau
  • Dirty Gutters Trash And Waste
  • The Hardest Part Of Screenwriting
  • 17 Copywriting Tips
  • I Love Grayer And Colder

Top Posts & Pages

  • The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
    The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
  • The Week In Review – 255
    The Week In Review – 255
  • Wonder Park Pi Song (Watch It Stick In Your Head)
    Wonder Park Pi Song (Watch It Stick In Your Head)
  • My Notes On, In the Eye of The Storm, By: Max Lucado
    My Notes On, In the Eye of The Storm, By: Max Lucado
  • How Much Does A Scriptwriter Get Paid?
    How Much Does A Scriptwriter Get Paid?
  • Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
    Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
  • God Wants You To Know What?
    God Wants You To Know What?
  • 31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
    31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
  • Justifying Our Decisions
    Justifying Our Decisions
  • Economics 101: Difference Between Absolute and Comparative Advantage
    Economics 101: Difference Between Absolute and Comparative Advantage

Copyright © 2021 · Generate Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in