Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books (mostly)

  • Home
  • About
    • My CV
    • Books
    • Series
  • Newsletter
  • Advertising
  • Tools
You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 7/29/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 7/29/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 7/29/2016
  Price Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 
Trend Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com
 
Notes
Nearby contract closed 136 points lower this week.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 72.60, possible resistance around 74.20.
The trend is up.

Price
Dec-16 is at:   74.04        Volume = 20,400
Mar-17 is at:   73.97        Volume = 3,501
May-17 is at:  73.71         Volume = 387
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 84.85

Cash Sales
Recently, on 242 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 66.80.

On the nearby contract, that puts the average basis at approximately: –7.24 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 13.87 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 110,652
US Net Upland Export Sales (2015/2016) = 44,600
     Vietnam was the big buyer at 28,800.
 

Current World Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 100.27 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 102.55
Supply: 202.82
Mill Use: 111.60
Ending Stocks: 91.29
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 81.8% 

Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 60.80 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 21.50
Imports – Exports: 4.4
Supply: 86.70
Mill Use: 35.00
Ending Stocks: 51.70
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 147.7%

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 11.19 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 27.50
Imports – Exports: -3.25
Supply: 35.44
Mill Use: 24.00
Ending Stocks: 11.44
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 47.7%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.9 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 15.80
Imports – Exports: -11.49Supply: 8.21
Mill Use: 3.60
Ending Stocks: 4.60
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 127.8%

 
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
    Long:  18,416  (Contracts)
    Short: 156,971
Swap Dealers
    Long:  61,232
    Short:  11,165
Managed Money
    Long:  85,610
    Short:  20,764
Other Reportables
    Long:  32,997
    Short:  21,300 

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Subscription Only
A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 

“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: X cents.”

*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 

General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours. 

Click Here to Read: “10 Pointson the ICE Cotton #2 Chart(CT) – Week Ending 7/29/2016“ 

====================

The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Privacy Policy

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Notifications of all new posts by email.

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter

Search

Top Posts

  • The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
    The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
  • Wonder Park Pi Song (Watch It Stick In Your Head)
    Wonder Park Pi Song (Watch It Stick In Your Head)
  • Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
    Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
  • Instabooks 169
    Instabooks 169
  • How Neat Handwriting Is For The Birds
    How Neat Handwriting Is For The Birds
  • Hyatt Hill Country Sunday House
    Hyatt Hill Country Sunday House
  • The Briefcase Technique
    The Briefcase Technique
  • Another Great Riddle For You To Try
    Another Great Riddle For You To Try
  • 31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
    31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
  • King Of Love, By: I Am They
    King Of Love, By: I Am They

Supporting = Loving

Buy Me a Coffee

Recent Posts

  • Shoe Will Be The Next To Drop
  • Random Thoughts – 383
  • Asymmetric Opportunities To Tilt Luck
  • Where I Sit 26
  • X.com

Copyright © 2023 · Generate Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in