Ok, I honestly had to Google what the Lindy Effect was when I came across this passage.
Although, I have spent eight years of my life formally studying economics, I had never heard of it.
Or, said differently, I do not remember hearing about it.
It originates from a New Republic article published in 1964 (below).
Apparently, “Lindy’s” was an old New York deli and restaurant that closed down in February of 2018 where comedians would gather and talk about how long other comedians were expected to last.
Essentially, the Lindy Effect says that as something lasts a long time, that resiliency predicts future longevity.
Interesting stuff.
I have little doubt that, barring some tragedy, the Pantry, Shawshank, Iron Maiden, and Zildjian will still be going strong. They are examples of a phenomenon known in economics as the Lindy effect.* Named after a famous restaurant where showbiz types used to meet to discuss trends in the industry, it observes that every day something lasts, the chances that it will continue to last increase. Or as the investor and writer Nassim Taleb has put it, “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. . . . Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy.”
-Ryan Holiday, Perennial Seller
