Sterling Terrell

recovering economist

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/8/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/8/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. rose just over 80 points this week.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 112,885 while export sales were up around 23% from last week.  Open interest for December stands at 118,759 with March open interest at 35,691. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 54% last week, and 45% last year.  14% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 13% last week, and 21% this week last year.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance remains around 60.00 – 60.50 as prices searched hard for consolidation this week.

Price

December is at:  64.21
March is at:  65.01

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 112,885.  Down from 136,608 last week.
US Net Export Sales = 145,100 RB 

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  100.56  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  116.42
Supply:  216.98
Mill Use:  111.34
Ending Stocks:  105.68
Stocks/Use Ratio:  94.92%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.31 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  98.81
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.26
Stocks/Use Ratio:  170.58% 

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.5
Imports:  .01
Supply:  19.21
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Stocks/Use Ratio:  37.1%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  30,812  (Contracts)
  • Short:  63,351
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  49,677
  • Short: 8,289
Managed Money

  • Long:  42,011
  • Short: 34,767
Other Reportables

  • Long:  15,119
  • Short:  29,175

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/1/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/1/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices fell just shy of 200 points this week.  Export sales were down around 31% from last week as U.S. certified stocks fell to 136,608 bales.  Open interest for December stands at 122,320 with March open interest at 29,717. Conditions Report stated 54% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 52% last week, and 45% last year.  13% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 14% last week, and 22% this week last year.  Managed money is net long.  Technicians believe there is possible resistance around 60.55.

Price

December is at:  63.37
March is at:  63.91
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 136,608.  Down from 183,731 last week.
US Net Export Sales of 254,400 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.  Down from 371,400 RB last week.
(China was the largest buyer at 104,700).
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  100.56  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  116.42
Supply:  216.98
Mill Use:  111.34
Ending Stocks:  105.68
Stocks/Use Ratio:  94.92%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.31 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  98.81
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.26
Stocks/Use Ratio:  170.58%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.5
Imports:  .01
Supply:  19.21
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Stocks/Use Ratio:  37.1%
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  30,812  (Contracts)
  • Short:  63,351
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  49,677
  • Short: 8,289
Managed Money

  • Long:  42,011
  • Short: 34,767
Other Reportables

  • Long:  15,119
  • Short:  29,175

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish
Sterling Terrell