Chart: barchart.com
Notes
What is there to say this week? The week ended up a bit lower with July explosively kicking towards its last few weeks of life. That was just a beautiful little short squeeze this week in July, wasn’t it? July open interest has fallen to 7,762 contracts with open interest for December up to 123,938. The July-Dec spread is back up to 1100 points. Planting report showed 95% complete, compared to 83% last week. Cotton conditions report showed 51% as good or excellent, compared to 50% last week, and 42% last year. We are not there quite yet but maybe look for a price bounce or consolidation as we move closer to the cost of production. Managed money is net long. Possible resistance at 76.00.
Price
July ended the week at: 88.16
December ended the week at: 77.08
Stats
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 427,727
US Net Export Sales of 103,300 RB for 2014/2015 were reported (Indonesia was the big buyer).
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 115.9
Supply: 214.9
Mill Use: 112.3
Ending Stocks: 102.7
Stocks/Use Ratio: 91.5%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 15.0
Supply: 17.7
Mill Use: 3.7
Ending Stocks: 4.3
Stocks/Use Ratio: 32.1%
Commitments of Traders
Long Short
Producer / Merchant: 28,899 102,410 (contracts)
Swap Dealers: 55,527 4,068
Managed Money: 46,590 18,000
Other: 14,203 21,487
View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)
Bearish to Neutral
