Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 7/4/2014

Prices fell  lower again this week.  Export sales bounced back a bit but certified stocks increased again.  With July open interest down to 1,889 contracts, we will now move to December and March. Open interest for December is up to 120,295 while March stands at 18,421. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to the same last week, and 47% last year.  13% of crop is poor to very poor, compared to 12% last week.  U.S. cotton acreage is now pegged at 11.4 million acres, up 268,000 acres from the last report.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 71.50.

July ended the week at: 76.22

December is at:  72.06
March is at:  73.02

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 461,341

US Net Export Sales of 59,700 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Indonesia was the largest buyer at 25,600).

Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 115.9

Supply: 214.9

Mill Use:  112.3

Ending Stocks:  102.7

Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 15.0

Supply:  17.7

Mill Use:  3.7

Ending Stocks: 4.3

Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%

                                                                   Long            Short

Producer / Merchant:                               12,699          84,091 (contracts)

Swap Dealers:                                          56,115          6,375

Managed Money:                                      44,117         16,543

Other:                                                         14,602          21,601

Bearish