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Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 10/3/2014

Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 10/3/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. rose 58 points this week as prices pushed just shy of 62.50.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 18,427 while net export sales were at 226,400 RB.  Open interest for December stands at 101,396 with March open interest at 62,965. Conditions Report stated 49% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 48% last week, and 42% last year.  18% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 18% last week, and 24% this week last year.  Managed money is net short. Technical traders see support around 60.00 with resistance around 63.00.  The trend is down.

Price

December is at:  62.47
March is at:  61.10

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 18,427.  Down from 18,545 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 226,400
(Turkey was the big buyer at 54,400.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  100.3  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.01
Supply:  218.31
Mill Use:  112.12
Ending Stocks:  106.29
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  94.8%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.96 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  99.46
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.91
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  172.35%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.54
Exports:  10.00
Supply:  18.99
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  136.84%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  46,538  (Contracts)
  • Short:  59,009
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  51,665
  • Short:  7,998
Managed Money

  • Long:  34,524
  • Short:  38,762
Other Reportables

  • Long:  17,840
  • Short:  39,570

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish