Price Picture
Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for July-15 closed around 160 points lower this week as prices finished at 63.09. The Dec-15 contract finished at 64.26. Open interest for July-15 is at 31,786 contracts. Dec-15 open interest is at 31,647. U.S. certified cotton stocks equaled 9,948 while U.S. net export sales were at 62,500 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 62.00 with possible resistance around 64.00. The long-term trend is up.
Price
July-15 is at: 63.09
Dec-15 is at: 64.26
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 70.15
July-15 is at: 63.09
Dec-15 is at: 64.26
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 70.15
Cash Sales
For 3/6/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 54.65.
On July, that puts the average basis right at: –8.44 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.34 cents over loan value.
For 3/6/2015, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 54.65.
On July, that puts the average basis right at: –8.44 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.34 cents over loan value.
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 9,948
US Net Upland Export Sales = 62,500
(Thailand was the big buyer at 13,000.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
(Thailand was the big buyer at 13,000.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 101.66 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 119.37
Supply: 221.03
Mill Use: 111.25
Ending Stocks: 109.84
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 98.73%
Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 30.00
Imports – Exports: 7.25
Imports – Exports: 7.25
Supply: 99.96
Mill Use: 35.50
Ending Stocks: 64.46
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 181.58%
Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 30.50
Imports – Exports: -3.10
Imports – Exports: -3.10
Supply: 38.92
Mill Use: 24.00
Ending Stocks: 14.92
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 62.16%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Beginning Stocks: 2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.08
Imports – Exports: -10.69
Imports – Exports: -10.69
Supply: 7.84
Mill Use: 3.65
Ending Stocks: 4.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 115.07%
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
Producer / Merchant
- Long: 15,613 (Contracts)
- Short: 121,664
Swap Dealers
- Long: 51,887
- Short: 5,151
Managed Money
- Long: 66,989
- Short: 20,275
Other Reportables
- Long: 20,356
- Short: 13,722
Cotton Price Model: 60.8 cents
A regression model, like the one below can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: 60.8 cents.”
(*Note: This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
(*Note: This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
General View
Bullish to neutral.
(Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.)
This letter archive can be found by clicking, here.
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*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading.
Past performance may not be indicative of future results.
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.
