Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books

  • Home
  • About
    • Work With Me
    • My CV
    • Tools
    • Books
    • Series
  • Newsletter
  • Advertising
You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/11/2015

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/11/2015

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/11/2015
 
Price Picture

Chart Source:  barchart.com


Trend Picture
Chart Source:  barchart.com
Notes
Nearby contract closed around 50 points higher this week.
Managed money is net long. 
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 63.00, possible resistance around 64.00.  
The trend is down.
Price  
Dec-15 is at:  63.13       Volume = 24,690
March-16 is at:  63.91   Volume = 5,465
May-16 is at:   63.30     Volume = 385
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  70.00
 
Cash Sales

Most recently, on 714 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 58.77.
On Dec, that puts the average basis at approximately:  –436 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 9.77 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 58,472        
US Net Upland Export Sales (2015/2016) = 83,400       
(Mexico was the big buyer at 26,200.)


Current World Balance Sheet (2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks:  110.91  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  108.74
Supply:  219.65
Mill Use:  113.44
Ending Stocks:  106.26
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  93.7%


Current China Balance Sheet (
2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks:  66.92 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  26.00
Imports – Exports:  5.70
Supply:  98.62
Mill Use:  34.00
Ending Stocks:  64.62
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  190.1%


Current India Balance Sheet (
2015/2016)

Beginning Stocks:  13.57 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 29.00
Imports – Exports:  –3.95
Supply:  38.62
Mill Use:  26.00
Ending Stocks:  12.92
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  49.7%
 
Current USA Balance Sheet (2015/2016) 

Beginning Stocks:  3.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  13.43
Imports – Exports:  –10.19
Supply: 6.94
Mill Use:  3.70
Ending Stocks:  3.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  86.48%
 
Commitments of Traders 

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  12,408  (Contracts)
  • Short: 116,182
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  65,975
  • Short:  3,214
Managed Money

  • Long:  53,878
  • Short:  18,963
Other Reportables
  • Long: 18,237
  • Short: 13,557
 

June Cotton Price Model:  60.1 cents 

A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors.  A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
 
“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average –  expect the US price of cotton to be approximately:  60.1 cents.”

(*Note:  This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
 

General View 

Bearish.
(Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.)

Click here to Read:  “10 Points on the ICE Cotton #2 Chart (CT) – Week Ending 9/11/2015”
==========


The Cotton Club Letter archive can be found by clicking, here.
 
If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Privacy Policy

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter

Free Weekly Newsletter:

Search

Recent Posts

  • Don’t Know Jerry Weintraub
  • Instabooks 349
  • Throw The Emergency Break
  • The Week In Review – 255
  • How Much Does A Scriptwriter Get Paid?
  • Random Thoughts – 279
  • Instabooks 348
  • A PO Or A BA
  • How People Get Hired
  • Bridger Plateau
  • Dirty Gutters Trash And Waste
  • The Hardest Part Of Screenwriting
  • 17 Copywriting Tips
  • I Love Grayer And Colder
  • Cafe Of The Pink Turtle
  • Thinking, Fast and Slow, By: Daniel Kahneman
  • Hunched Over This Computer
  • Movies About Hollywood Never Make Money?
  • How Shiny Dime Writing Can Focus You
  • Lay Here Reading A Book To
  • The Week In Review – 254
  • Random Thoughts – 278
  • 5 Things I Learned Reading: Story Craft
  • The Story Of Mother And Daughter
  • Instabooks 347

Top Posts & Pages

  • The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
    The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
  • The Tragedy Of Gina "Bronco" Bouza (1932-1957)
    The Tragedy Of Gina "Bronco" Bouza (1932-1957)
  • Wagon Train Morality
    Wagon Train Morality
  • 31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
    31 Persuasion Tips That I Learned From Scott Adams
  • Ed Emberley's Drawing Book: Make A World, By: Ed Emberley
    Ed Emberley's Drawing Book: Make A World, By: Ed Emberley
  • Your Complaints Are Not
    Your Complaints Are Not
  • The Passing Of Youth And Love
    The Passing Of Youth And Love
  • There Is Something About Driving After Midnight
    There Is Something About Driving After Midnight
  • Promotor Fidei
    Promotor Fidei
  • But Our Hearts Were Built For More
    But Our Hearts Were Built For More

Copyright © 2021 · Generate Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in