Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books (mostly)

  • Home
  • About
    • My CV
    • Books
    • Series
  • Newsletter
  • Advertising
  • Tools
You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/2/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/2/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/2/2016
 
 
  Price Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 
 
Trend Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 

Notes
Nearby contract closed approximately 24 points lower this week.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 66.00, possible resistance around 70.00.
The trend is up.


Price

Dec-16 is at:   67.79        Volume = 13,342
Mar-17 is at:   68.11        Volume = 2,498
May-17 is at:  68.20         Volume = 220
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 77.15


Cash Sales

Recently, on 122 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximatley: 64.84.
On the nearby contract, that puts the average basis at approximately: -295 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 11.03 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 42,158
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 309,200
     Vietnam was the big buyer at 66,800.
 


Current World Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 99.18 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 101.58
Supply: 200.76
Mill Use: 111.26
Ending Stocks: 89.61
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 80.5% 


Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 60.30 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 21.00
Imports – Exports: 4.4
Supply: 85.70
Mill Use: 35.00
Ending Stocks: 50.70
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 144.9%

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 10.86 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 27.00
Imports – Exports: -3.2
Supply: 34.66
Mill Use: 24.00
Ending Stocks: 10.66
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 44.4%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.9 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 15.88
Imports – Exports: -11.49

Supply: 8.29
Mill Use: 3.60
Ending Stocks: 4.70
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 130.5%

 
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
    Long:  29,814  (Contracts)
    Short: 162,771
Swap Dealers
    Long:  65,821
    Short:  8,175
Managed Money
    Long:  74,035
    Short:  12,752
Other Reportables
    Long:  24,677
    Short:  19,216

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Subscription Only
A 
regression model
, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 


“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: X cents.”

*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 


General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours. 


Click Here to Read: “10 Points on the ICE Cotton #2 Chart(CT) – Week Ending 9/2/2016“ 


====================


The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Privacy Policy

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Notifications of all new posts by email.

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter

Search

Top Posts

  • The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
    The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
  • Competition Cheer
    Competition Cheer
  • Another Great Riddle For You To Try
    Another Great Riddle For You To Try
  • Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
    Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
  • Instabooks 269
    Instabooks 269
  • The Bucket Shot, by Peter McKinnon
    The Bucket Shot, by Peter McKinnon
  • 2 Reasons Analogies Fail In Persuasion
    2 Reasons Analogies Fail In Persuasion
  • 7 Things I Learned While Living In Saudi Arabia
    7 Things I Learned While Living In Saudi Arabia
  • Dislike Of Work
    Dislike Of Work
  • Our Mercenary Heart
    Our Mercenary Heart

Supporting = Loving

Buy Me a Coffee

Recent Posts

  • Dislike Of Work
  • Better Than Being A Droid
  • Random Thoughts – 393
  • Gets To The Bottom Of Things
  • Where I Sit 30

Copyright © 2023 · Generate Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in