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You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 1/13/2017

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 1/13/2017

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 1/13/2017
 
 

  Price Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 
 

Trend Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 

Notes
Nearby contract closed approximately 309 points lower
this week.

Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 72
.00, possible resistance around 73.00.
The trend is up.

Price
Mar-17 is at:   72.27        Volume = 11,966 
May-17 is at:  72.76         Volume = 6,662
July-17 is at:   73.27         Volume = 3,378
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 82.25


Cash Sales

Recently, on 2,118 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 66.34.
On the nearby contract, that puts the average basis at approximately:  –456 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 14.73 cents over loan value.Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 109
,313
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 236,000
     Vietnam was the big buyer at 74,100. 

Current World Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 96.89 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 105.34
Mill Use: 111.76
Ending Stocks: 90.65
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 81.1% 


Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 58.20 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 22.00
Mill Use: 36.25
Ending Stocks: 48.35
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 133.4%

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 10.94 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 27.00
Mill Use: 23.25
Ending Stocks: 12.09
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 52.0%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.8 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.96
Mill Use: 3.30
Ending Stocks: 5.00
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 151.5%

 
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
    Long:  16,455  (Contracts)
    Short: 190,571
Swap Dealers
    Long:  58,472
    Short:  13,781
Managed Money
    Long:  99,905
    Short:  9,612
Other Reportables
    Long:  38,914
    Short:  11,733

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Current Price Is Available By Subscription Only
A 
regression model
, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 


“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately:  X cents.”
*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 


General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours.


====================


The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here
If this was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell [at] outlook [dot] com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.

Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

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