Have you ever considered the possibility that you have no clue?
I try to consider this likelihood.
This is why I try to end as many statements as possible with question marks.
See, I had this reaction when I heard someone try to say something smart about statistics the other day.
My first thought was, “Have you ever even been in a statistics class?”
My guess is not.
But like the rest of us, they are probably doing nothing but reading headlines and blowing hot air.
In reality, we are very limited in what we know.
But let’s say you are excellent at a given thing, a true master of your domain, like Thomas Sargent. Does this mean you are also more likely to excel in a different domain? A sizable body of research says the answer is no. The takeaway here is simple but powerful: just because you’re great at something doesn’t mean you’re good at everything. Unfortunately, this fact is routinely ignored by those who engage in—take a deep breath—ultracrepidarianism, or “the habit of giving opinions and advice on matters outside of one’s knowledge or competence.”
–Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Think Like A Freak
