Sterling Terrell

ICE dollar prices were down heavy this week.  Export sales were up big as U.S. certified stocks slumped to 397, 614 bales.  Open interest for December stands at 118,782 while March open interest rose to 23,449. Conditions Report stated 55% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 53% last week, and 44% last year.  13% of crop is poor to very poor, the same as last week, and 24% last year.  World Ag. supply and demand estimates show expected U.S. production jumped 1,5 million bales to 16.5 million.  Domestic mill use was raised 100,000 bales and exports were raised 500,000 bales.  At the same time, U.S. ending stocks were raised to 5.2 million bales.  The report noted that if met (the 5.2 million bales of ending stock) would “be the largest since 2008/09.”  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 67.50

December is at: 68.12
March is at:  69.04

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 397, 614

US Net Export Sales of 203,200 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Turkey was the largest buyer at 73,000).

Beginning Stocks:  100.56  (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  116.42

Supply:  216.98

Mill Use:  111.34

Ending Stocks:  105.68

Stocks/Use Ratio:  94.92%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  16.5
Imports:  .01

Supply:  19.21

Mill Use:  3.8

Ending Stocks:  5.2

Stocks/Use Ratio:  136.84%

Producer / Merchant

• Long:  16,165  (Contracts)
• Short:  68,459

Swap Dealers

• Long:  56,154
• Short:  7,147

Managed Money

• Long:  40,250
• Short:  24,824

Other

• Long:  14,252
• Short:  24,411

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish

Prices fell  lower again this week.  Export sales bounced back a bit but certified stocks increased again.  With July open interest down to 1,889 contracts, we will now move to December and March. Open interest for December is up to 120,295 while March stands at 18,421. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to the same last week, and 47% last year.  13% of crop is poor to very poor, compared to 12% last week.  U.S. cotton acreage is now pegged at 11.4 million acres, up 268,000 acres from the last report.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 71.50.

July ended the week at: 76.22

December is at:  72.06
March is at:  73.02

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 461,341

US Net Export Sales of 59,700 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Indonesia was the largest buyer at 25,600).

Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 115.9

Supply: 214.9

Mill Use:  112.3

Ending Stocks:  102.7

Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 15.0

Supply:  17.7

Mill Use:  3.7

Ending Stocks: 4.3

Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%

                                                                   Long            Short

Producer / Merchant:                               12,699          84,091 (contracts)

Swap Dealers:                                          56,115          6,375

Managed Money:                                      44,117         16,543

Other:                                                         14,602          21,601

Bearish