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Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 7/4/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 7/4/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

Prices fell  lower again this week.  Export sales bounced back a bit but certified stocks increased again.  With July open interest down to 1,889 contracts, we will now move to December and March. Open interest for December is up to 120,295 while March stands at 18,421. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to the same last week, and 47% last year.  13% of crop is poor to very poor, compared to 12% last week.  U.S. cotton acreage is now pegged at 11.4 million acres, up 268,000 acres from the last report.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 71.50.

Price
July ended the week at: 76.22
December is at:  72.06
March is at:  73.02
Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 461,341
US Net Export Sales of 59,700 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Indonesia was the largest buyer at 25,600).
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 115.9
Supply: 214.9
Mill Use:  112.3
Ending Stocks:  102.7
Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  60.3 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Supply:  97.8
Mill Use:  37.0
Ending Stocks:  60.8
Stocks/Use Ratio:  164.0%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 15.0
Supply:  17.7
Mill Use:  3.7
Ending Stocks: 4.3
Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%
Commitments of Traders
                                                                   Long            Short
Producer / Merchant:                               12,699          84,091 (contracts)
Swap Dealers:                                          56,115          6,375
Managed Money:                                      44,117         16,543
Other:                                                         14,602          21,601
View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)
Bearish

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 6/27/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 6/27/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

Prices eased and then exploded lower this week as export sales fell and certified stocks climbed yet again.  With 10 days till expiration, July open interest has fallen to 2,347 contracts. Open interest for December stands at 119,052.  Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 51% last week, and 43% last year.  Staying the same as last week, 12% of crop is poor to very poor, compared to 23% last year.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance at 72.50.

Price
July ended the week at:  80.73
December ended the week at:  74.73
Stats
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 448798
US Net Export Sales of 24,100 RB for 2014/2015 were reported (Honduras was the big buyer at 10,000RB).
Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 115.9
Supply: 214.9
Mill Use:  112.3
Ending Stocks:  102.7
Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%
Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 15.0
Supply:  17.7
Mill Use:  3.7
Ending Stocks: 4.3
Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%
Commitments of Traders
                                                                   Long            Short
Producer / Merchant:                                  12,699          84,091 (contracts)
Swap Dealers:                                            56,115          6,375
Managed Money:                                        44,117         16,543
Other:                                                        14,602          21,601
View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)
Bearish

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

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