Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books (mostly)

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This Probability Riddle Is Just Wrong

This Probability Riddle Is Just Wrong

Seriously, this probability riddle made me chuckle.

Of course, y’all know I love these types of little puzzles and stats questions. Here too.

So here goes:

If you pick an answer at random, the probability that you get the question right is?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 25%
D. 0%

Four choices to choose from is a 25% chance of picking the correct answer.

But two of these choices are the “correct” answer of 25%.

So that narrows it down to where two of the possible four answers are correct – and two of the possible four answers are incorrect.

This is a 50% chance of randomly choosing the correct answer.

The correct answer is B.

But there is a problem now. Do you see it?

If B (50%) is the correct answer here – the chance of randomly picking B is 25%.

But two of these choices are the “correct” answer of 25%.

So that narrows it down to where two of the possible four answers are correct – and two of the possible four answers are incorrect.

This is a 50% chance of randomly choosing the correct answer.

The correct answer is B.

And now we are back to where we started, again.

It is a case of circular reasoning.

There is no answer. You have no chance of being correct. 0%. This is choice D. The chance of randomly picking choice D (1 out of 4) is 25%. And here we go again.

I feel like it ruins it by explaining it, but here we are.

Did I miss anything?

H/T:

Don’t say I never did anything for you ♥️ pic.twitter.com/KElRozc8vj

— Will Spencer | The Renaissance of Men (@will_renofmen) September 7, 2021

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Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #Logic, #Statistics

Are You Bad At Estimating Odds?

Are You Bad At Estimating Odds?

How are you at estimating odds?

Because your problem, that issue you are fretting over, may not actually be that big of a deal.

Your problem could still be a big one.

But you might just be bad at knowing how big an obstacle actually is.

If you think your odds of solving your problem are bad, don’t rule out the possibility that what is really happening is that you are bad at estimating odds.

-Scott Adams, How To Fail At Almost Everything And Still Win Big

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Filed Under: PotpourriTagged With: #ProblemSolving, #Statistics

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