By: Sterling Terrell
Cotton growers need to stop caring about the fundamentals of the cotton market so much.
Because if you are a cotton grower, they don’t matter for you.
In an overall sense, of course supply and demand matters. Supply and demand determine prices.
Fundamentals determine prices.
But, to any trader, or grower, (in any market) saying: “Fundamentals determine prices.”
I would respond by saying: “Yeah. So?”
You should care about what the price does. Not what the fundamentals do.
The price is all that effects you!
The price of cotton is what puts food on the table, not supply and demand.
Ginning numbers, planted acres, mill use, Stocks-to-Use ratios, the weather in China, the popularity of nylon, the price of nylon, why waste your energy on any of that?
An economist might be interested in a discussion on the determinates of cotton prices.
But why are you?
Do you actually care? Or is it just part of a narrative that you tell yourself after prices have already moved.
Is it what you talk about and tell your friends about, shaking your head after you refused to hedge at 85 cents per pound?
Here is the punchline:
The price is all you need to follow, and you need to overcome your fear of selling when the price works for you.