Sterling Terrell

recovering economist

You are here: Home / Not Books / Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 9/26/2014

Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 9/26/2014

Cotton Market Snapshot – For Week Ending: 9/26/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. fell 248 points this week as prices pushed to 60.00.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 18,545 while net export sales were at 155,700 RB.  Open interest for December stands at 101,926 with March open interest at 61,153. Conditions Report stated 48% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 49% last week, and 44% last year.  18% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 18% last week, and 23% this week last year.  Managed money is net long. Technical traders see support around 60.00 with resistance around 62.50.  The trend is down.

Price

December is at:  61.89
March is at:  61.10

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 18,545.  Down from 44,513 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 155,700
(China was the big buyer at 51,500.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  100.3  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.01
Supply:  218.31
Mill Use:  112.12
Ending Stocks:  106.29
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  94.8%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.96 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  99.46
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.91
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  172.35%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  16.54
Exports:  10.00
Supply:  18.99
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.2
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  136.84%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  45,967  (Contracts)
  • Short:  66,734
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  52,649
  • Short:  7,497
Managed Money

  • Long:  38,145
  • Short:  33,185
Other Reportables

  • Long:  16,867
  • Short:  40,643

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish
Sterling Terrell