Sterling Terrell

smart ideas from books (mostly)

  • Home
  • About
    • My CV
    • Books
    • Series
  • Newsletter
  • Advertising
  • Tools
You are here: Home / Not Books / The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/16/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/16/2016

The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 9/16/2016
 
 
  Price Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 
 
Trend Picture

Chart Source: Barchart.com

 

Notes
Nearby contract closed approximately 180 points lower this week.
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 67.00, possible resistance around 68.20.
The trend is up.


Price

Dec-16 is at:   67.28        Volume = 6,078
Mar-17 is at:   67.61        Volume = 1,433
May-17 is at:  67.99         Volume = 495
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 76.60


Cash Sales

Recently, on 159 bales traded, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 53.05.
On the nearby contract, that puts the average basis at approximately:  –1431 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 11.28 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales
ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 34,588
US Net Upland Export Sales (2016/2017) = 136
,400
     Indonesia was the big buyer at 41,000. 

Current World Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 98.55 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 102.47
Supply: 201.02
Mill Use: 111.23
Ending Stocks: 89.81
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 80.7% 


Current China Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 60.20 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 21.00
Imports – Exports: 4.4
Supply: 85.60
Mill Use: 35.00
Ending Stocks: 50.60
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 144.6%

Current India Balance Sheet (2016/2017)

Beginning Stocks: 10.94 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 26.50
Imports – Exports: –2.9
Supply: 34.66
Mill Use: 24.00
Ending Stocks: 10.54
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 43.9%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2016/2017)
Beginning Stocks: 3.8 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production: 16.14
Imports – Exports: -11.49

Supply: 8.45
Mill Use: 3.50
Ending Stocks: 4.90
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 140.0%

 
Commitments of Traders
Producer / Merchant
    Long:  28,989  (Contracts)
    Short: 166,860
Swap Dealers
    Long:  68,465
    Short:  7,402
Managed Money
    Long:  73,090
    Short:  11,012
Other Reportables
    Long:  25,797
    Short:  19,019

Cotton Club Letter Price Model:  Subscription Only
A 
regression model
, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be: 


“Over the last number of years, if cotton supply and demand were at their current levels, we would – on average – expect the US price of cotton to be approximately: X cents.”

*Note – This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices. 


General View
Bullish.
Keep in mind that while this is a weekly letter, I can easily change my mind in 24 hours. 


Click Here to Read: “10 Points on the ICE Cotton #2 Chart(CT) – Week Ending 9/16/2016“ 


====================


The Cotton Club Letter Archive can be found by clicking, here

Share this:

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Not BooksTagged With: #TheCottonClubLetter

Privacy & Cookies: This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this website, you agree to their use.
To find out more, including how to control cookies, see here: Privacy Policy

Subscribe to Blog via Email

Notifications of all new posts by email.

Connect

  • Facebook
  • LinkedIn
  • Pinterest
  • Twitter

Search

Top Posts

  • The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
    The Tricky Lily Pad Riddle (You Probably Can't Solve)
  • Competition Cheer
    Competition Cheer
  • Another Great Riddle For You To Try
    Another Great Riddle For You To Try
  • Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
    Can You Solve The Bat And Ball Riddle?
  • Instabooks 269
    Instabooks 269
  • The Bucket Shot, by Peter McKinnon
    The Bucket Shot, by Peter McKinnon
  • 2 Reasons Analogies Fail In Persuasion
    2 Reasons Analogies Fail In Persuasion
  • Instabooks 345
    Instabooks 345
  • Our Mercenary Heart
    Our Mercenary Heart
  • Dislike Of Work
    Dislike Of Work

Supporting = Loving

Buy Me a Coffee

Recent Posts

  • Dislike Of Work
  • Better Than Being A Droid
  • Random Thoughts – 393
  • Gets To The Bottom Of Things
  • Where I Sit 30

Copyright © 2023 · Generate Pro On Genesis Framework · WordPress · Log in