Post hoc ergo propter hoc is a Latin phrase.
It means: “After, therefore, because of.”
And it is a logical fallacy that is easy to fall for.
Basically, it means that X happens, and then Y happens.
After the fact, you grasp your pearls and conclude that X caused Y.
It might be true, but probably not.
For example, if I cough and then the lights all go out, should we conclude that my cough caused it?
Like I said, it might be true, but probably not.
Oil prices go above $100 per barrel, and then the incumbent party is voted out of Congress.
Did the change in oil prices cause it? It’s hard to know for sure.
The problem is that this is literally all that is reported in the financial news.
I don’t know if it is the best fallacy, but it is my favorite one.
And yes, in the past, admittedly, post hoc ergo propter hoc has given me too much pleasure.