What is there to say this week?  The week ended up a bit lower with July explosively kicking towards its last few weeks of life. That was just a beautiful little short squeeze this week in July, wasn’t it?  July open interest has fallen to 7,762 contracts with open interest for December up to 123,938.  The July-Dec spread is back up to 1100 points.  Planting report showed 95% complete, compared to 83% last week. Cotton conditions report showed 51% as good or excellent, compared to 50% last week, and 42% last year.  We are not there quite yet but maybe look for a price bounce or consolidation as we move closer to the cost of production.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance at 76.00.

July ended the week at:  88.16

December ended the week at:  77.08

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 427,727

US Net Export Sales of 103,300 RB for 2014/2015 were reported (Indonesia was the big buyer).

Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 115.9

Supply: 214.9

Mill Use:  112.3

Ending Stocks:  102.7

Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 15.0

Supply:  17.7

Mill Use:  3.7

Ending Stocks: 4.3

Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%

                                                                   Long            Short

Producer / Merchant:                                  28,899          102,410 (contracts)

Swap Dealers:                                            55,527         4,068

Managed Money:                                        46,590         18,000

Other:                                                        14,203         21,487

Bearish to Neutral

 Notes

What is there to say this week?  The week ended up a bit higher as volume fades from July into December. By Friday, July open interest had fallen to 50,865 with open interest for December up to 114,891.  Meanwhile, the July-Dec spread stubbornly remains with  a cliff of over 900 points, pointing toward more future cotton and looking like the July contract may not go away quietly.

USDA raised US production by half a million bales while lowering Chinese imports to 8 million bales, all of which looks to help the bears.

July ended the week at:  86.98

December ended the week at:  77.75

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 417,920

US Net Export Sales of 74,700 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.

Beginning Stocks: 99.0 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 115.9

Supply: 214.9

Mill Use:  112.3

Ending Stocks:  102.7

Stocks/Use Ratio:  91.5%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 15.0

Supply:  17.7

Mill Use:  3.7

Ending Stocks: 4.3

Stocks/Use Ratio:  32.1%

                                                                   Long            Short

Producer / Merchant:                                  24,699          101,098 (contracts)

Swap Dealers:                                            52,850          5,390

Managed Money:                                        45,557          21,752

Other:                                                        17,256          13,505

Bearish