Sterling Terrell

recovering economist

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending: 1/2/2015

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed near 250 points lower this week as prices finished at 59.58.  The July-15 contract finished at 61.23.  Open interest for March-15 is at 120,821 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 10,832. U.S. certified stocks equaled 51,142 while net export sales were at 89,400 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 58.50 with possible resistance around 61.00.  The long-term trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  59.58
July-15 is at:  61.23
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  68.55

Cash Sales
For 1/2/2014, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 59.75 (B2B only).
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -17 points.
Cash prices are averaging 7.98 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 51,142
US Net Upland Export Sales = 89,400
(Vietnam was the big buyer at 36,200.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.64  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.98
Supply:  220.62
Mill Use:  112.60
Ending Stocks:  108.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  95.99%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  37.00
Ending Stocks:  62.66
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  169.35%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  31.00
Imports – Exports:  -3.90
Supply:  38.62
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.62

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.92%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  15.92
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.38
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  121.05%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  35,116  (Contracts)
  • Short: 76,763
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  45,720
  • Short:  5,634
Managed Money

  • Long:  48,566
  • Short:  36,981
Other Reportables

  • Long: 15,455
  • Short:  24,212

General View

Bearish

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

Cotton Club

Cotton Club

For Week Ending: 12/19/2014 

Chart Source:  barchart.com

Notes
ICE cotton dollar prices for March-15 closed 35 points higher this week as prices finished at 60.89.  The July-15 contract finished at 62.14.  Open interest for March-15 increased to 122,727 contracts. July-15 open interest is at 10,500. U.S. certified stocks rose to 55,852 while net export sales were at 89,500 RB. Managed money is net long. Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 59.50 with possible resistance around 61.60.  The long-term trend is down.

Price

March-15 is at:  60.89     60.54 last week
July-15 is at:  62.14         61.78 last week
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at:  69.35

Cash Sales
For 12/19/2014, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of: 56.93.
On March, that puts the average basis right at:  -396 points.
Cash prices are averaging 8.67 cents over loan value.

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 55,852          46,136 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 89,500     199,200 last week.
(China was the big buyer at 54,700.)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  101.64  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  118.98
Supply:  220.62
Mill Use:  112.60
Ending Stocks:  108.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  95.99%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  62.71 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  30.00
Imports – Exports:  6.95
Supply:  99.66
Mill Use:  37.00
Ending Stocks:  62.66
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  169.35%

Current India Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  11.52 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  31.00
Imports – Exports:  -3.90
Supply:  38.62
Mill Use:  24.00
Ending Stocks:  14.62

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  60.92%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.45 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  15.92
Imports – Exports:  -9.99
Supply:  8.38
Mill Use:  3.80
Ending Stocks:  4.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  121.05%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  35,913  (Contracts)
  • Short: 66,208
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  45,231
  • Short:  3,526
Managed Money

  • Long:  45,886
  • Short:  44,231
Other Reportables

  • Long: 16,523
  • Short:  24,647


General View

Bearish to neutral

If this email was forwarded to you and you’d like to sign up, email me at sterlingterrell@hotmail.com with “Cotton Club” in the subject line.  Email with “Stop Cotton” in the subject line to be removed.

*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
There is substantial risk of loss to futures and options trading. 
Past performance may not be indicative of future results. 
One should carefully consider their financial suitability prior to trading futures or options.

Sterling Terrell