Sterling Terrell

ICE cotton dollar prices were down slightly this week.  Export sales were down 40% from last week as U.S. certified stocks slumped to 311,060 bales.  Open interest for December stands at 119,637 with March open interest at 25,208. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 55% last week, and 42% last year.  14% of crop is poor to very poor, compared to 13% last week, and 26% last year.  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 65.50.

December is at: 67.74
March is at:  68.39

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 311,060.  Down from 397,614 last week.

US Net Export Sales of 342,800 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.  Up from 203,200 RB last week.
(Turkey was the largest buyer at 148,200).

Beginning Stocks:  100.56  (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  116.42

Supply:  216.98

Mill Use:  111.34

Ending Stocks:  105.68

Stocks/Use Ratio:  94.92%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  16.5
Imports:  .01

Supply:  19.21

Mill Use:  3.8

Ending Stocks:  5.2

Stocks/Demand Ratio:  136.84%

Producer / Merchant

• Long:  20,502  (Contracts)
• Short:  65,656

Swap Dealers

• Long:  52,979
• Short: 6,990

Managed Money

• Long:  40,486
• Short:  27,573

Other Reportables

• Long:  14,621
• Short:  26,120

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Bearish

ICE dollar prices were down heavy this week.  Export sales were up big as U.S. certified stocks slumped to 397, 614 bales.  Open interest for December stands at 118,782 while March open interest rose to 23,449. Conditions Report stated 55% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 53% last week, and 44% last year.  13% of crop is poor to very poor, the same as last week, and 24% last year.  World Ag. supply and demand estimates show expected U.S. production jumped 1,5 million bales to 16.5 million.  Domestic mill use was raised 100,000 bales and exports were raised 500,000 bales.  At the same time, U.S. ending stocks were raised to 5.2 million bales.  The report noted that if met (the 5.2 million bales of ending stock) would “be the largest since 2008/09.”  Managed money is net long.  Possible resistance around 67.50

December is at: 68.12
March is at:  69.04

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 397, 614

US Net Export Sales of 203,200 RB for 2014/2015 were reported.
(Turkey was the largest buyer at 73,000).

Beginning Stocks:  100.56  (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  116.42

Supply:  216.98

Mill Use:  111.34

Ending Stocks:  105.68

Stocks/Use Ratio:  94.92%

Beginning Stocks:  2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production:  16.5
Imports:  .01

Supply:  19.21

Mill Use:  3.8

Ending Stocks:  5.2

Stocks/Use Ratio:  136.84%

Producer / Merchant

• Long:  16,165  (Contracts)
• Short:  68,459

Swap Dealers

• Long:  56,154
• Short:  7,147

Managed Money

• Long:  40,250
• Short:  24,824

Other

• Long:  14,252
• Short:  24,411

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish