Sterling Terrell

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/15/2014

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. uneventfully fell right at 14 points this week. U.S. certified stocks fell to 90,461 while net export sales were at 176,400 RB RB. Open interest for December stands at 114,874 with March open interest at 41,106. Conditions Report stated 52% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 53% last week, and 43% last year. 14% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 14% last week, and 25% this week last year. Managed money is, miraculously, still net long. Possible resistance remains around 60.00 as prices continue to consolidate.

Price

December is at: 64.35

March is at: 65.25

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 90,461.

US Net Upland Export Sales = 176,400 RB
(Turkey was the big buyer at 45,100)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 99.96 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 117.64

Supply: 217.7

Mill Use: 112.6

Ending Stocks: 105.08

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 93.32%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 61.41 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 29.5
Imports: 8.00

Supply: 98.91

Mill Use: 36.5

Ending Stocks: 62.36

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 170.85%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 2.6 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 17.5
Exports: 10.70

Supply: 20.1

Mill Use: 3.8

Ending Stocks: 5.6

Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 147.37%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant

Long: 35,242 (Contracts)
Short: 57,908

Swap Dealers

Long: 46,537
Short: 9,270

Managed Money

Long: 40,289
Short: 39,193

Other Reportables

Long: 15,411
Short: 27,867

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/8/2014

Chart: barchart.com

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. rose just over 80 points this week. U.S. certified stocks fell to 112,885 while export sales were up around 23% from last week. Open interest for December stands at 118,759 with March open interest at 35,691. Conditions Report stated 53% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 54% last week, and 45% last year. 14% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 13% last week, and 21% this week last year. Managed money is net long. Possible resistance remains around 60.00 – 60.50 as prices searched hard for consolidation this week.

Price

December is at: 64.21

March is at: 65.01

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 112,885. Down from 136,608 last week.

US Net Export Sales = 145,100 RB

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 100.56 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 116.42

Supply: 216.98

Mill Use: 111.34

Ending Stocks: 105.68

Stocks/Use Ratio: 94.92%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 61.31 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 29.5
Imports: 8.00

Supply: 98.81

Mill Use: 36.5

Ending Stocks: 62.26

Stocks/Use Ratio: 170.58%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks: 2.7 (million 480 lb. bales)

Production: 16.5
Imports: .01

Supply: 19.21