Sterling Terrell

recovering economist

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/22/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/22/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. showed a flicker of life by rising 183 points this week.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 86,550 while net export sales were at 155,600 RB.  Open interest for December stands at 111,669 with March open interest at 44,364. Conditions Report stated 50% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 52% last week, and 46% last year.  16% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 14% last week, and 23% this week last year.  Managed money is now net short. Technical traders see support around 65.25 with an upside target of around 67.25.  Others look for downside to 60.00.

Price

December is at:  66.18
March is at:  66.57

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 86,550.   Down from 90,461 last week.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 155,600.  Down from 176,400 RB last week.
(China was the big buyer at 68,500)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  99.96  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  117.64
Supply:  217.7
Mill Use:  112.6
Ending Stocks:  105.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  93.32%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.41 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  98.91
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.36
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  170.85%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.6 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  17.5
Exports:  10.70
Supply:  20.1
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  147.37%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  36,403  (Contracts)
  • Short:  58,766
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  45,856
  • Short:  8,365
Managed Money

  • Long:  36,583
  • Short: 40,069
Other Reportables

  • Long:  17,774
  • Short:  27,152

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/15/2014

Cotton Snapshot – For Week Ending: 8/15/2014

Chart:  barchart.com

Notes

ICE cotton dollar prices for Dec. uneventfully fell right at 14 points this week.  U.S. certified stocks fell to 90,461 while net export sales were at 176,400 RB RB.  Open interest for December stands at 114,874 with March open interest at 41,106. Conditions Report stated 52% of crop is good to excellent, compared to 53% last week, and 43% last year.  14% of the crop is poor to very poor, compared to 14% last week, and 25% this week last year.  Managed money is, miraculously, still net long.  Possible resistance remains around 60.00 as prices continue to consolidate.

Price

December is at:  64.35
March is at:  65.25

Stocks and Sales

ICE Certified Cotton Stocks = 90,461.
US Net Upland Export Sales = 176,400 RB
(Turkey was the big buyer at 45,100)

Current World Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  99.96  (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  117.64
Supply:  217.7
Mill Use:  112.6
Ending Stocks:  105.08
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  93.32%

Current China Balance Sheet (2014/2015)
Beginning Stocks:  61.41 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  29.5
Imports:  8.00
Supply:  98.91
Mill Use:  36.5
Ending Stocks:  62.36
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  170.85%

Current USA Balance Sheet (2014/2015)

Beginning Stocks:  2.6 (million 480 lb. bales)
Production:  17.5
Exports:  10.70
Supply:  20.1
Mill Use:  3.8
Ending Stocks:  5.6
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio:  147.37%

Commitments of Traders

Producer / Merchant
  • Long:  35,242  (Contracts)
  • Short:  57,908
Swap Dealers

  • Long:  46,537
  • Short:  9,270
Managed Money

  • Long:  40,289
  • Short: 39,193
Other Reportables

  • Long:  15,411
  • Short:  27,867

View (Subject to Change in 24 Hours)

Bearish
Sterling Terrell