![The Cotton Club Letter – For Week Ending 5/15/2015](https://i0.wp.com/sterlingterrell.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/zzz-4.png?fit=702%2C234&ssl=1)
Managed money is net long.
Short-term, technical traders see possible support around 66.00, possible resistance around 67.50.
The trend is up.
July-15 is at: 66.84 Volume = 8,804
Oct-15 is at: 68.11 Volume = 42
Dec-15 is at: 66.82 Volume = 5,144
Cotlook ‘A’ Index is at: 73.35
Today, the trading platform TheSeam.com reported an average cash price of approximately: 61.29.
On July, that puts the average basis at approximately: –555 points.
Cash prices are averaging approximately 9.30 cents over loan value.
Stocks and Sales
(Turkey was the big buyer at 24,000.)
Current World Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Current China Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Imports – Exports: 5.95
Current India Balance Sheet (2015/2016)
Imports – Exports: –4.1
Ending Stocks/Mill Use Ratio: 54.25%
Beginning Stocks: 4.4 (million 480 lb. bales)
Imports – Exports: -10.69
Producer / Merchant
- Long: 9,341 (Contracts)
- Short: 123,493
- Long: 59,301
- Short: 4,237
- Long: 71,950
- Short: 24,372
- Long: 20,072
- Short: 15,008
May Cotton Price Model: 55.4 cents
A regression model, like the one located here can give insight into how prices, on average, would react given a change in one or more fundamental supply or demand factors. A proper interpretation of this price model would be:
(*Note: This model does not attempt to forecast the future direction or level of cotton prices.)
General View
Bullish.
*This is for informational purposes only, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.