Sterling Terrell

recovering economist

Lindy Effect

Lindy Effect

Ok, I honestly had to Google what the Lindy Effect was when I came across this passage.

Although, I have spent eight years of my life formally studying economics, I had never heard of it.

Or, said differently, I do not remember hearing about it.

It originates from a New Republic article published in 1964 (below).

Apparently, “Lindy’s” was an old New York deli and restaurant that closed down in February of 2018 where comedians would gather and talk about how long other comedians were expected to last.

Essentially, the Lindy Effect says that as something lasts a long time, that resiliency predicts future longevity.

Interesting stuff.

I have little doubt that, barring some tragedy, the Pantry, Shawshank, Iron Maiden, and Zildjian will still be going strong. They are examples of a phenomenon known in economics as the Lindy effect.* Named after a famous restaurant where showbiz types used to meet to discuss trends in the industry, it observes that every day something lasts, the chances that it will continue to last increase. Or as the investor and writer Nassim Taleb has put it, “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. . . . Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy.”

-Ryan Holiday, Perennial Seller

Lindy Effect
Lindy Effect

Keep Writing, Forever?

Keep Writing, Forever?

If you are in doubt, I say that you should keep writing.

You keep writing because – well – writers write.

There is no other way around it.

And a funny thing sometimes happens when you work through the dip of it.

At the very least: I am going to keep writing.

Because posterity, and creation itself, is waiting to see what I do – waiting to see what you do.

And you get to pick what you are after all.

This is such a great passage:

Still writing? I usually nod and smile, then quickly change the subject. But here is what I would like to put down my fork and say: Yes, yes, I am. I will write until the day I die, or until I am robbed of my capacity to reason. Even if my fingers were to clench and wither, even if I were to grow deaf or blind, even if I were unable to move a muscle in my body save for the blink of one eye, I would still write. Writing saved my life. Writing has been my window—flung wide open to this magnificent, chaotic existence—my way of interpreting everything within my grasp. Writing has extended that grasp by pushing me beyond comfort, beyond safety, past my self-perceived limits. It has softened my heart and hardened my intellect. It has been a privilege. It has whipped my ass. It has burned into me a valuable clarity. It has made me think about suffering, randomness, good will, luck, memory, responsibility, and kindness, on a daily basis—whether I feel like it or not. It has insisted that I grow up. That I evolve. It has pushed me to get better, to be better. It is my disease and my cure. It has allowed me not only to withstand the losses in my life but to alter those losses—to chip away at my own bewilderment until I find the pattern in it. Once in a great while, I look up at the sky and think that, if my father were alive, maybe he would be proud of me. That if my mother were alive, I might have come up with the words to make her understand. That I am changing what I can. I am reaching a hand out to the dead and to the living and the not yet born. So yes. Yes. Still writing.

-Dani Shapiro, Still Writing

Sterling Terrell